Just posted my latest piece for the Atlantic Politics Channel, which takes a close look at the 19th District State Senate special election going on today:
Given the unique dynamics of the 19th District race, it's clear that much more is at play than a simple referendum on national party politics. At the state level the biggest impact on next year's election seems to be the public's disgust with Lansing in general and lame duck Governor Granholm in particular.
"I think the situation for 2010 could be very favorable for Republicans," Demas said, referencing Granholm's approval ratings, which have hovered in the 30s in recent months. She also called Lt. Governor John Cherry's approval rating "abysmal"; Cherry is currently the slim favorite to take the Democratic nomination for governor next year. "The political situation in any state as depressed as Michigan is unstable. People in general are disgusted with Lansing."
"Granholm has done an atrocious job," Steusloff said. "Two out of three voters disapprove of her job as governor. It will be incredibly hard for Cherry to wash his hands of this. All the factors are there for a good year for the GOP."
Even Griffin was reluctant to express support for Granholm.
Check out the rest here.